Trump Says New Strikes on Iran Are 'Highly Unlikely' — but His Top Diplomat Warns a Deal Is Nowhere Near
President Donald Trump signalled on Sunday that renewed American military strikes against Iran are "highly unlikely" if Tehran agrees to a strong nuclear agreement, but his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, offered a far more sobering assessment hours later, warning that negotiations remain stalled over Iranian demands he described as unrealistic and outrageous. The split message, delivered on the same day, left the path out of the eight-month-old war as uncertain as ever, with diplomacy advancing in public while the military pressure campaign continues at sea and in the air.
Mr Trump struck his conciliatory note in a telephone interview with CNN on Sunday. "It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," he said. "The answer is: highly unlikely it's going to be necessary." The president argued that months of American and Israeli military operations have left Iran severely weakened, giving Washington considerable leverage to secure an agreement without another major offensive. His comments came as oil prices fell on Monday, with markets reading the remarks as a sign that the immediate risk of escalation had eased.
Mr Rubio, speaking to reporters in Florida before departing for a meeting of Group of Seven foreign ministers in Paris, was blunt about the state of the talks. "You have a number of countries that continue to engage them with different ideas, but I wouldn't say we're on the verge of a breakthrough," he said. He said the diplomatic efforts had produced little progress because Tehran's demands were "simply not just unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic." He insisted the administration would continue pursuing a diplomatic solution wherever possible, emphasising that Mr Trump preferred negotiations over renewed military confrontation.
Tehran's reported demands, according to the Associated Press and Reuters, include an end to the American naval blockade of its Persian Gulf ports, the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, compensation for war damage, and a halt to hostilities across the region, including Israeli military operations in Lebanon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Tehran's proposal still stands, while warning of a harsh response if Washington chose war. Qatar is among the countries mediating between the two sides, and the Associated Press has reported that Iran is reviewing proposals presented by chief mediator Qatar aimed at addressing differences over Tehran's nuclear programme. Mr Trump is scheduled to meet Qatar's Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, at the White House on Monday.
The war began on 28 February, when the United States and Israel launched their campaign against Iran. A ceasefire took hold in April and a memorandum aimed at a peace agreement followed in June, but no final settlement has been reached. Mr Trump confirmed on Friday that US forces had struck Iranian air defences on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, and further American strikes have been reported in recent days. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear programme is peaceful, but according to the International Atomic Energy Agency it holds 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity, a short technical step from the 90 per cent level generally associated with weapons-grade material. Mr Rubio defended the decision to go to war, saying Mr Trump had confronted a real threat even though doing so "isn't necessarily popular, but necessary".
The standoff is unfolding against a crowded diplomatic calendar. The G7 foreign ministers meet in Paris on Monday and Tuesday, and Mr Trump's meeting with the Qatari prime minister will be closely watched for any sign that the Qatari proposals have moved the two sides closer. For now, the gap between the president's optimism and his secretary of state's caution leaves the central question unanswered: whether the coming days bring a deal, or another round of strikes. Mr Rubio said any American action would be defensive and would depend on the level of threat, adding: "If there's a threat to our forces in the region, we will act against those."
On Reddit, discussion of the conflict has centred on the strikes themselves, including the Qeshm Island operation and what Mr Trump has described as further "minor" strikes, with users in r/iran and r/geopolitics debating whether the president's softer tone signals a genuine turn toward diplomacy or a pause before more military action (r/iran). The answer may come as early as Monday, when the Qatari prime minister arrives at the White House and the G7 ministers gather in Paris.