Israel's Vote Count Nears Its End With No Bloc Able to Govern

Israel’s election count is nearing its end, but the result still offers no clear route to a governing majority. With more than 90 per cent of ballots counted by Thursday morning, provisional projections put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc at 53 seats, the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot at 48, and Arab-led parties at 19 in the 120-seat Knesset. Neither main bloc is close to the 61 seats needed for a majority, leaving coalition negotiations — or another election — ahead.

The broad arithmetic has changed little as the count has advanced. Earlier projections placed Netanyahu’s bloc at 54 or 55 seats and the opposition near 50; more recent estimates have settled at 53, 48 and 19. These are projections based on the partial count, not the final allocation. Turnout reached 77.7 per cent, the highest since 1999, according to election officials.

Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker capacity and leads the largest bloc, but is eight seats short of a majority. His former allies Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, whose parties are projected to hold 12 and seven seats, are being courted by Likud. Eisenkot’s opposition bloc, meanwhile, would need cooperation from Arab-led parties to pass the 61-seat threshold. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen has said the alliance is prepared to cooperate with an opposition-led government, while stopping short of joining it.

That distinction could determine whether any arrangement can last. An opposition minority government supported from outside by Arab lawmakers is one possible route, but it would have to navigate deep disagreements over security, Gaza, the West Bank and relations with Washington. Likud has also filed a complaint alleging election-integrity violations involving Arab parties. The Central Elections Committee has said it will examine complaints through its review process; the allegations have not been established as fact.

Around half a million special, double-envelope ballots — including votes cast by soldiers, diplomats, hospital patients and people in prisons — are being counted separately. Their tally could shift individual party totals, though officials and local reporting have not expected them to overturn the broad picture. The count is expected to conclude this week, with formal results due by 4 November. President Isaac Herzog will then consult party representatives before deciding whom to ask to form a government.

The political uncertainty is already drawing attention beyond Israel. During the campaign, Netanyahu raised the possibility of renewed joint action with US President Donald Trump against Iran. Asked after the vote about helping to broker a unity government led by Netanyahu, Trump said he had not considered the idea and would “take a look,” according to The Times of Israel. A prolonged caretaker period would leave major decisions on Iran, Gaza and the West Bank with a government lacking a fresh parliamentary majority.

For now, voters have delivered a clear message through an inconclusive result: neither camp has a mandate to govern alone. The next government, if one can be formed, will depend on compromises that neither side made the centrepiece of its campaign.